Gold and Energy Advisor -- Gold, Oil & Energy Markets Investment Research  
James DiGeorgia
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Gold and Energy Advisor's Real Wealth

Real Wealth #167  04/01/2008



Once again we nail the up and down move in Gold and Oil but don't let the short-term swings in gold and energy cloud your long-term investment startegy

 

Dear Subscribers,

 

Wow!

 

I have to admit it I wasn't prepared for the response yesterday's article by guest David Nichols of the Fractal Gold Report managed to stir up. Apparently, warning that gold could pull back to as low as $760 an ounce really hit a nerve.

 

I received dozens of phone calls and emails from subscribers who wanted to know if the bull market in gold -- is over.

 

Repeat after me — Gold is heading to $2,500... Gold could wind up topping at $5,000 and may even wind up topping $10,000 an ounce by the time this bull market in gold is over!

 

Let me be 100% clear, nothing short of a miracle is stopping gold from hitting $2,500 in the next few years.

 

The simple reason I've included David Nichols as a guest analyst in the Gold & Energy Advisor is I believe he's one of the best short-term traders in the world, bar none. Sure he graduated from Yale with honors, sure he worked by my side for several years, sure he's brilliant, but bottom line: he has the innate ability, instinct and  discipline to focus like a laser beam on the day to day trading required for trading FUTURES. It's a talent many claim, but rarely exists.

 

Friends we are going to see $100 weekly and even daily swings in the price of gold over the next few days become increasingly frequent. If you're a long term buy and hold investor you must not allow yourself to get caught up in these swings. Please don't let the short term up and down moves in the gold market keep you from piling Gold, Platinum and Silver in your IRA and your investment portfolio. Smart investors will keep loading up on U.S. Gold Coins like the one I'm offering at the end of this issue of Real Wealth.

 

If you're a short term trader or are interested in becoming a short term trader, by all means I strongly recommend David Nichol's Fractal Gold Report and my Gold & Energy Options Trader . David's Futures service is EXTREMELY aggressive and profitable. My options service is very aggressive and uses leverage and is also very profitable. Both services are designed to let subscribers profit on both the up and down moves. David's service focuses on gold and my options service focuses more on energy stocks and stock and commodity indexes like OIH and XAU.

 

I've written over and over about the "Death of the Dollar" and how through reckless monetary and fiscal policy our nation's currency is being devalued daily.

 

The sub prime debt crises is just the first shoe to drop. The $585 billion pumped in by the Federal Reserve since November to prevent a complete financial meltdown on Wall Street was just the first down payment. Last week the Federal Reserve made another $100 billion available to banking institutions to prevent another Bear Stearns like event.

 

In his new book, The $1 Trillion Dollar Meltdown, Charles R Morris writes...

"The sad truth," he writes, "is that sub-prime is just the first big boulder in an avalanche of asset write-downs that will rattle on through much of 2008."

Expect the landslide to cascade through high-yield bonds, commercial mortgages, leveraged loans, credit cards and -- the big unknown -- credit-default swaps, Morris says. The national value for those swaps, which are meant to insure bondholders against default, covered about $45 trillion in portfolios as of mid-2007, up from some $1 trillion in 2001, he writes.

Morris can't be dismissed as a crank. A lawyer, former banker and author of 10 other books, he knows a thing or two about the complex instruments that have spread toxic debt throughout the credit system. He once ran a company that made software for creating and analyzing securitized asset pools. Yet he writes with tight clarity and blistering pace.

We should be as bold as Volker, he suggests: Face the scale of the mess, take a $1 trillion write down and shore up regulatory measures. His recommendations include forcing loan originators to retain the first losses; requiring prime brokers to stop lending to hedge funds that don't disclose their balance sheets; and bringing the trading of credit derivatives onto exchanges.

What he fears is that the U.S. will instead follow the Japanese precedent, seeking to "downplay and to conceal. Continuing on that course will be a path to disaster."

 The above are some excerpts from a Bloomberg article I strongly recommend every investor read. But I strongly recommend you keep in mind that the $1 Trillion number is grossly understated. The true size of this credit crisis is more like $4 Trillion (approximately one-third the size of the Federal Debt to give you some perspective of the size of the problem) that's why the panic over Bear Stearns was so great.

 

Allowing Bear Stearns to collapse would have had a compounding impact on so many multi billion dollar hedge funds that the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve recognized we were LITERALLY on the edge a financial Armageddon.

 

In truth, the crisis Volker faced in 1980 could be compared in retrospect -- to a bad case of the Flu -- while what we face now in 2008 is potentially terminal cancer -- if not immediately dealt with.

 

Dealing with this crisis means providing and continuing to provide banks and hedge funds with liquidity and the ability to widen their profit margins in order to restore their institutions' equity to debt levels to prevent them from collapsing.

 

Liquidity usually comes from investors, including foreign investors. We've seen some of that with a few sovereign investment funds jumping in and buying assets or taking positions in financials the past few weeks. But in a crisis potentially this enormous the only way out is to INFLATE.

 

What Morris fears is that the U.S. will instead follow the Japanese precedent, seeking to "downplay and to conceal. In this crisis that means dramatically expanding the money supply which means the U.S. Dollar is heading towards an even lower valuation and gold, energy and commodities are heading much higher i.e. $2,500 gold.

 

This, of course, is in the long term. In the short term, we're going to see big rallies in gold and big sell offs as the reality of the monetary expansion (ugh!) freshly printed paper money hits the market.

 

What's Next?

 

The analogy that best describes what lies ahead in my mind can best be drawn to what occurred on the ground level from 1970 through 1979 when homes regularly began the decade being worth $15,000 and by the end were worth $150,000. While that looked like a big gain, the fact was it was a net negative return on investment because $150,000 in 1979 didn't buy what $15,000 bought in 1970. To conceal, cover up and minimize this crises we're going to see inflation rise and the government jury rig the numbers while the U.S. Dollar slides lower and lower in value. Those not holding precious metals and not invested in commodities are going to suffer terrible economic displacement.

 

Wild Cards are not anything anyone wants to consider BUT you better consider them!

 

 Trading the short term moves up and down in precious metals and energy makes great sense if, again, you're a short term trader. But keep in mind at any moment terrorists could set off a dirty bomb, a nuclear weapon or spread a biological attack.

 

Heck, even South American Terrorists are in the market for uranium. Never before in human history, has there ever been a greater threat of millions dying from a terrorist attack. Day to day, minute to minute this reality exists. This means if you're not holding precious metals in your IRA or investment portfolio -- you're clearly making the biggest potential mistake in your financial planning possible.

 

 

By all means sign up for David Nichol's Fractal Gold Report and my Gold & Energy Options Trader you can sign up for both and the First 30 Days are on me. Garb the short term profits but lose sight of the bigger picture Gold is heading to $2,500... Gold could wind up topping at $5,000 and may even wind up topping $10,000 an ounce by the time this bull market in gold is over.

 

Sincerely,

 

James DiGeorgia

Editor & Publisher

 

P.S. A couple of really great U.S. Gold Coins just came in that I highly recommend. The first is an 1878-S $2.50 Liberty Gold coin graded Gem Uncirculated MS66. According to our records, this is the Finest Known example of this coin graded by either NGC or PCGS. That's right population ONE.

 

In fact this coin is so rare that only THREE of these coins have been graded MS65 by NGC and PCGS -- and they trend at $20,000.

 

This Finest Known example is available right now to the first investor/collector who calls (1-866-697-GOLD (4653) ext. 1406) for just $29,500.

 

It can't be replaced, and should gold hit $2,500 an ounce, I fully expect this coin jump to a $75,000 even $100,000 valuation and that may be a very conservative estimation.

 

The second coin to arrive today is an 1898 MS67 $2.50 U.S. Gold Liberty with a total population at NGC and PCGS of just 30 coins. This flawless Finest Known quality coin trends for $10,000 and is available today for just $9,750.

 

My target price on this with $2,500 gold is $45,000 to $60,000. So, lots of upside potential. Gold investors would do well acquiring these kinds of coins for the long term.  Call 1-866-697-GOLD (4653) ext. 1406

 

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Please see risk disclosure link below.